Some experts are predicting another Bitcoin rally in August once fundamentals have improved.
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In a recent interview, United States Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC) Chairman Jay Clayton said that he is concerned about manipulation and custody services in the crypto space. If these issues are addressed and if any Bitcoin ETF satisfies their rules, it might stand a chance of getting the green light.
While crypto markets are speculating on the probability of a Bitcoin ETF, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), has announced that it will not be offering any new Bitcoin futures contracts in March. This is likely to benefit its competitor CME, which will continue to provide the traders with an opportunity to trade in Bitcoin futures.
Fundstrat Global Advisors founder Tom Lee believes that the fundamentals of Bitcoin are improving. He expects a turnaround by August of this year. On the way up, he anticipates $6,000 to act as a major resistance.
Let’s see what our analysis projects.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to bounce off the 20-day EMA and rise above the psychological resistance of $4,000. Both the moving averages are gradually sloping up and the 20-day EMA has held in the past few days, which shows buying at lower levels. We expect the digital currency to pick up momentum above $4,000 and quickly rally to $4,255. If the bulls scale this level, it will complete a double bottom pattern that has a target objective of $5,273.91.
On the contrary, if the BTC/USD pair again turns down from $4,000 and breaks below the uptrend line and the 50-day SMA, it will indicate profit booking and aggressive short initiation at higher levels.
The critical zone to watch on the downside is $3,355–$3,236.09. A breakdown of this zone will be very negative. The downtrend will resume if the digital currency plunges to a new 52-week low. Therefore, traders can keep the stop loss on the existing long positions below $3,236.09. We will soon trail the stops higher.
Ethereum (ETH) has successfully held the support at $134.50. The bulls are trying to push the price towards $144.78. Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is also close to the center. This suggests equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
If the ETH/USD pair picks up momentum and breaks out of $144.78, it can rally to the critical overhead resistance of $167.32. Above this level, the ascending triangle completes that has a pattern target of $251.64.
The trend will weaken if the digital currency drops below 50-day SMA. The next support on the downside is $116.30. The uptrend line of the ascending triangle is also at this level; hence, we expect this to hold. A break below the uptrend line will invalidate the bullish pattern, which is a negative sign. Traders can protect the remaining long positions with stops at $125.
Ripple (XRP) has been clinging to the uptrend line of the developing ascending triangle for the past few days. Both the moving averages are flat and the RSI is at the midpoint, which points to a balance between demand and supply.
If the XRP/USD pair slips below the uptrend line, it can drop to the support at $0.27795. A breakdown of this level can retest the yearly low at $0.24508. Therefore, traders holding long positions can keep the stop loss just below $0.27795.
On the other hand, if the pair spurts higher from the current levels and rises above $0.33108, it can move up to the resistance line of the descending channel. A breakout of the channel will indicate a likely change in trend.
Litecoin (LTC) again took support close to the 20-day EMA on March 14. Currently, the bulls have pushed the price above the overhead resistance of $56.910, which is a bullish sign. The next resistance on the upside is $59.4494. If the bulls succeed in scaling this level, we anticipate a rally to $65.5610 and above it to $69.2790.
While the up-trending moving averages are bullish, the negative divergence on the RSI is worrying us. If the RSI breaks out of the resistance line, it will be another positive sign.
EOS has been holding above the 20-day EMA for the past four days. Repeated attempts by the bears to sink the price below this level have failed, which shows buying at lower levels.
Both the moving averages are gradually moving higher and the RSI has also turned up. We expect the bulls to make another attempt to scale above the overhead resistance of $3.8723 and rally towards $4.4930.
However, if the EOS/USD pair turns down from current levels and slips below the 20-day EMA, it will correct to $3.1534. The 50-day SMA is also at this level, hence, we expect this support to hold. But if the bears sink the pair below the 50-day SMA, it can correct to $2.1733. Therefore, traders can keep their stops on the remaining long positions at $3.10.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is currently attempting to sustain above the $120–$140 range. The strong bounce from the 50-day SMA increases the probability of a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $140. Following the breakout, the move can extend to the next overhead zone of $157.95 to $163.89. As the digital currency has a history of vertical rallies, traders can trail their stops higher instead of booking profits at the above-mentioned levels. If the momentum picks up, the rally can reach $186.30 and above it $239.
However, if the BCH/USD pair reverses direction from the current level, it will prolong its stay in the range for a few more days. It will turn negative on a breakdown of the range at $120. The next level to watch on the downside is $105. For now, traders can keep the stops on the long positions at $116.
Binance Coin (BNB) has been consolidating close to the overhead resistance of $15.9100517 for the past three days. It has not given up much ground, which suggests that the bulls are in no hurry to book profits on their positions.
The trend remains firmly up as both the moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is in the overbought territory. This increases the possibility of an upward breakout that can carry the BNB/USD pair to $18. Therefore, traders can retain the stops on the remaining long positions at breakeven. We shall suggest trailing the stops higher next week.
Our bullish assumption will prove to be wrong if the pair reverses direction from the current levels and breaks below the 20-day EMA. The next support on the downside is the 50-day SMA.
Stellar (XLM) has been crawling higher for the past few days but is struggling to breakout of the resistance line. A breakout of the resistance line will propel it towards $0.13427050. With the 20-day EMA sloping up and the RSI close to the overbought level, the path of least resistance is to the upside. Traders can protect their long positions with a stop loss of $0.08.
Contrary to our assumption, if the XLM/USD pair fails to breakout of the resistance line, it can slide to the 20-day EMA and below it to the uptrend line. A breakdown of the uptrend line will indicate that the bears are back in the driver’s seat and a retest of the low is probable.
Though Tron (TRX) has been trading below the 20-day EMA for the past few days, the bears have not been able to sink it below $0.02094452. This suggests buying at lower levels.
As the TRX/USD pair has held up close to the 20-day EMA for the past few days, we expect the bulls to make another attempt to push prices higher. On the way up, after crossing 20-day EMA, the 50-day SMA will act as the first resistance. The final hurdle is $0.02815521, above which, we expect a new uptrend to start. We shall suggest initiating long positions after the pair sustains above the range.
But if the digital currency turns down from the current levels and slides below $0.02094452, it can drop to $0.01830. This is an important support. If this breaks down, a retest of the lows is probable. We do not see a reliable trade set up as long as the virtual currency is stuck inside the range.
Cardano (ADA) continues to be range bound between $0.036815 and $0.051468. It has reached the top of the range, from where it had returned thrice in the past. The bulls will attempt to scale above this while the bears will try to defend it.
As the 20-day EMA is trending up and the RSI has sustained in positive territory, we anticipate a breakout this time. The minimum target objective following the breakout is $0.066121 and if it is crossed, the next level to watch is $0.080. Therefore, the traders can buy above $0.0565 and keep a stop loss at $0.044 for now. We shall soon trail the stops higher.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the ADA/USD pair turns down from the current levels. In such a case, the range bound action will continue for a few more days. The pair will turn negative on a breakdown and close (UTC time frame) below the range.